Cities vs climate crisis
Poorly designed cities contribute to climate change while being particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate crisis. Members of the Advisory Group on Climate Crisis affiliated to the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences warn that after 2040 the mortality rate in Warsaw will increase to over 225% compared to this year. They recommend certain actions.
Sunset in Warsaw. Photo by Charlie Gallant, Unsplash.
According to the UN forecasts, a portion of the world’s population living in the urban areas will increase to 68% by 2050. Currently, city dwellers in Europe constitute over 74% of population, and in Poland over 60%.
“Cities are the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change. On the one hand, they consume over 60-70% of the world’s energy and account for 75% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. On the other hand, cities are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to the density of population and infrastructure. The intensification of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rainfalls, violent storms or hurricane-force winds, may cause considerable physical, social and economic damage as well as direct and indirect threat to human life and health. The extreme weather phenomena may be additionally influenced by other factors, for instance local features of urban climate” – scientists write in their communication on the threats to the cities posed by the climate crisis.
The negative effects of heat waves are additionally aggravated by urban heat island. Large areas of impermeable surfaces not only heat up faster but also increase the stormwater runoff.
“It is estimated that the increase in the frequency of heat waves in Warsaw will result in a significant increase in mortality, especially in the second half of this century. Taking into account the average death rate, the increase in mortality in 2011-2040 will amount to about 36% of the total number of daily deaths (during heat wave), and after 2040, due to a 6-fold increase in the number of 5-day heat waves, the mortality rate will increase to over 225% compared to this year. These trends should be viewed in the context of aging communities, and thus the increased vulnerability of urban residents to the negative effects of climate change. In addition, increasing thermal discomfort will likely result in an increase in the number of air-conditioning devices in households and public buildings, and thus an increase in energy consumption and additional emission of anthropogenic heat" – predict experts from the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.
Therefore, climate protection and adaptation to changes depend on municipal policy and the actions of local governments. In the communication, the Group recommends taking adaptation and mitigation measures (limiting climate change) and their integration.
Urban adaptation measures should be taken into account in spatial planning so as to shape the blue-green infrastructure. It is also important to apply building standards and risk-resistant infrastructure, and to develop crisis management plans (including stormwater management plans).
Cities' mitigation actions should include comprehensive energy management (e.g. energy saving) and mobility management (e.g. creating car-free zones, promoting walking and cycling).
Full text of the communication 04/2021 is available in Polish on the PAS website.
About the Advisory Group on Climate Crisis
The interdisciplinary Advisory Group on Climate Crisis affiliated with the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences is chaired by Prof. Szymon Malinowski (University of Warsaw), with Prof. Jacek Piskozub (PAS Institute of Oceanology) acting as deputy chair, and Dr. Iwona Wagner (European Regional Center for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, University of Lodz) acting as secretary.
Other members are: Prof. Irena Wrońska (Medical University of Lublin), Prof. Krzysztof Kwiatek (National Veterinary Research Institute), Dr. Adam Habuda (PAS Institute of Law Studies), Dr. Krzysztof Niedziałkowski (PAS Institute of Philosophy and Sociology), Dr. Agata Goździk (PAS Institute of Geophysics), Prof. Tomasz Okruszko (Warsaw University of Life Sciences), Prof. Zbigniew Kundzewicz (PAS Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment), Dr. Andrzej Jagodziński (PAS Institute of Dendrology), Dr. Anna Januchta-Szostak (Poznań University of Technology), Prof. Jan Kozłowski (Jagiellonian University), Prof. Jan Kiciński (PAS Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery), Dr. Aleksandra Kardaś (University of Warsaw), Dr. Justyna Orłowska (National Center for Climate Change, Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute), Dr. Mateusz Strzelecki (Polish Young Academy).
The following experts were also involved in the preparation of the communication:
Prof. Krzysztof Fortuniak (University of Lodz), Prof. Barbara Szulczewska (Institute of Urban and Regional Development), Prof. Zbigniew Karaczun (Warsaw University of Life Sciences).
